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How Brands Like Uber, Tesla or Netflix Might Change Your Life Before 2030...

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Remember January 2010?  You didn’t have an iPad.  You couldn’t ‘call an Uber.’ And there is a very good chance you were still relying on paper maps to get places: turn-by-turn navigation was only made available on the iPhone in 2012.

A lot has changed in the last 10 years, technologically speaking. Moore’s Law hasn’t disappointed: it may even have delivered more than we ever thought was possible.  

Over the last 10 years, we adopted new technologies and developed new habits that have transformed us, the way we work, interact, and how and why we spend time together and apart.

Over the last 10 years, we adopted new technologies and developed new habits that have transformed us, the way we work, interact, and how and why we spend time together and apart.

What technologies do you think will be introduced in the next 10 years?  And what impact do you think they will have on society?

 “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it,” Winston Churchill once said. 

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane to review and learn from what we got so we can envision what we might get.

Streaming Hot!

I know that this is hard to believe, but the iPad was only invented in 2012. Before then, we consumed much of our media on single-use tools: TVs, DVDs, and print newspapers…. Remember those? The iPad changed all of that for us, making it possible to consume a multitude of content wherever we are. 

Spotify launched in the US in 2011 and it transformed the way we listen to music and legally seek ownership of it. We can now access almost any music, without having to own a CD, disk or cassette.  

The combination of near ubiquitous connectivity, portable devices like the iPad and content services like Spotify has given us such convenience that it trumps the need to physically own what we consume.

And if you’re not convinced that this trend has had a lasting effect on our society, consider this stat: the best performing stock in the S&P 500 of the last decade is Netflix.  It produced a 4,000% return.

Ironically, when Netflix was introduced into the stock market, do you know which stock it replaced?  The New York Times.  If that’s not a sign of business model disruption, I don’t know what is!

By 2030, we will be renting most of our other physical assets, starting with our cars.  No more car ownership: why would anyone own a car if tomorrow, they could pay Uber or Tesla for a subscription package to transportation?

Now What?  Over the last 10 years, we have moved from physical ownership of content, watched on single-use devices to “anytime, anywhere access of virtual media.” Most of us are comfortable paying a monthly fee to virtually consume any content, without ever been able to physically own it.  

If you are still not convinced that this is our ‘new normal,’ brace yourself: it’s accelerating! When Disney introduced their “Netflix-like” service this past month, it acquired an estimated 15 million subscribers within its first five days. It took Netflix almost 3 years to acquire that many subscribers.  Analysts value Disney’s service at more than $100 billion or 70% of Netflix current value.

My prediction: by 2030, we will be renting most of our other physical assets, starting with our cars.  No more car ownership: why would anyone own a car if tomorrow, they could pay Uber or Tesla for a subscription package to transportation?


Is the Future of Work, “Micro Work”?!

Ten years ago, if you didn’t just work for one company, you might have been called a part-time employee or a freelancer. Now, everyone can be part of the “gig economy.”  In fact, according to the Federal Reserve, the “gig economy” includes 75 million people in the U.S. From TaskRabbit, to Uber and Lyft, to PostMate and DoorDash, anyone has the “opportunity” to work two, three or four jobs.  Advantages of this system include the ability to “own your schedule,” Disadvantages include the job precarity the system might create.

Now What?

I can’t really comment one way or the other (I’m not an economist), but, what does this say about our relationship to work?  Does this augur the end of specialization? How should we train future generations if their reality is a combination of multiple gigs laid out unevenly throughout their day?

How should we train future generations if their reality is a combination of multiple gigs laid out unevenly throughout their day?

My prediction: by 2030, knowledge-based work will be a lot more virtual.  Employee groups will organize to create new types of employment contracts.  For instance, why couldn’t we pay for skills on a subscription basis, just like we pay for Spotify?  If you need business analysis services, why don’t you subscribe to a cooperative that provides them to your company as a service?  Service-focused companies do this well today while handling competitive work issues. Who’s to say how much of our knowledge-based work will have been outsourced by the time 2030 rolls around?

The above are only a few of the changes I expect.  For instance, we know that our attention span has decreased significantly due to the use of new communication tools that weren’t here 10 years ago: Instagram and Pinterest were launched in 2010.  Snapchat was founded in 2011.  

Yet, these tools have had a “visual impact” (pun intended) on communication styles — more pictures, shorter messages.  Even if you don’t use these tools, you probably use more emojis or phone avatars that you did 10 years ago.

How should we think about the next 10 years in light of the radical changes that have occurred over the last 10?

Others like Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX…) are hard at work on Neurolink, creating implantable brain chips.  This could mean that in 10 years, we won’t even bat an eye at telepathy.   What do you think? Remember that I can’t read your mind. Yet…

One option is the world that Frank Chen, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz describes in his TED Talk-style presentation here: He sees a world augmented by AR contact lenses, AI-powered robots that personalize meal plans based on our fitness goals… all the way to smart AI coaches that provide us with feedback to help us improve ourselves.

Others like Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX…) are hard at work on Neurolink, creating implantable brain chips.  This could mean that in 10 years, we won’t even bat an eye at telepathy.  

What do you think? Remember that I can’t read your mind. Yet

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