I’ve worked in the videoconferencing industry for several years now. And awhile back, I predicted something would happen with video conferencing and video: “Soon, every device with a screen will have a camera.” I said that 10 years ago – before the first iPhone came out – and people could not believe it. In the end, I was wrong. But my error was that it happened within five years, not 10.
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about another convergence: Flying cars – personal hybrid ground-to-air vehicles – are coming, and soon.
Based on technology already in use, investment currently in play and global passion for this innovation, I predict we’ll see people using these crafts within the next few years. When I first drafted this article just a few weeks ago, I had predicted it would be five to 10 years. And then today, I came across two articles that suggest it’s much sooner than I expected. One about a German company who expects to release flying taxis into market by 2019 and anther that features a Slovakian company that unveiled its commercial design for a flying car at show in Monaco.
I think people will look back to this moment and remember the mainstream saying: “It won’t happen for 20 years, or even in my lifetime.” Look, I understand the general skepticism. Flying cars have been a popular sci-fi concept for more than a century without significant development – until recently.
Recent innovations enabling development
In the past decade, companies ranging from small operations to French aerospace behemoth Airbus have begun building prototypes. These efforts circle the globe, and include America’s Moller International, China’s EHang, the Netherlands’ PAL-V and Slovakia’s AeroMobil. EHang has already partnered with Dubai to introduce flying cars there this summer. Larry Page, Google’s co-founder, has formed one flying-car company and invested heavily in another.
“Oh, but planes are expensive, and cars are cheap,” you may say. Well, that’s largely due to economies of scale. We just don’t make as many planes. But the economics of making flying cars, if we make as many of them as on-the-ground cars, could be similar. Electric cars are becoming more common and cost-effective, with their batteries getting lighter and cheaper, for example. If flying cars are also electric, and can appropriate the same technology, then we're that much closer to achieving economies of scale in this crucial area.
Another concern people have is how the cars will “see” each other
Well, there is already sensing technology and intelligence programs that allow drones to work together and avoid each other in ways humans can’t even fathom. We've seen many drone formation demos, one very notable instance being the Intel Shooting Star drone squad during the Lady Gaga Super Bowl LI halftime show. This is another transferable enabling technology. An autonomous or even semi-autonomous flying car should even be safer than a piloted one if it removes opportunities for human error.
How they travel and where they go
When it comes to practical viability, there must also be versatility. A flying-only car would be impractical. We need “multimodal” cars that drive and fly. How to get to an airstrip? Drive then fly. How to go to the office from a landing spot or helipad? Drive there. Just like most birds can walk and fly, flying cars should be able to get you to a takeoff location via ground first.
Which of course brings us to traffic and safety questions. Where do we fly? Where do we land?
My friend works at Amazon doing drone strategy, and he talks about drone highways: designated areas to fly. Not over houses, but over lightly populated areas, minimizing risk of harm. We could designate different levels of drone highway, depending on the vehicle's speed and sophistication. A pizza-delivery drone might fly low and slow, but something else can go 100 mph when 500 feet above ground.
If these vehicles are like a hybrid of plane and helicopter, maybe we won’t need runways. Landing spots could be more like a helipad. If they are lightweight, maybe they could safely land on roofs.
Transforming travel patterns
Thinking big – even beyond practical concerns – this innovation could transform how we live. Flying cars could take transportation pressure off cities by allowing people to live vast distances from where they work.
For example, even if you can’t afford to live in San Francisco, maybe you could still work there. From San Jose to San Francisco is about 55 miles, but it can take two to three hours with traffic. If I could fly there in 10 minutes, and it was reasonably affordable, like an Uber, then that would be a very attractive option.
Regulators should get ready now
Clearly, this "futuristic" technology may not be far from reality. But as with many tech developments, flying cars may arrive to the market before regulators are prepared for them. It took the Federal Aviation Administration more than a decade to develop rules for drones, long after they were in common use. It could be the same with flying cars – but it shouldn't be.
U.S. agencies should seriously consider crafting rules for these new vehicles, which could become an economic sparkplug for U.S. businesses. Other countries will define the market if we lack the regulations and support to help this industry get off the ground (so to speak).
No matter how this innovation unfolds, it certainly will be interesting to see. I’ll be watching. Like my prediction for cameras in every screen, I knew it was just a matter of time – and I wonder how close I’ll be this time.
