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Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

If the relationship of $X$ to $Y$ can be approximated as quadratic (or any polynomial), the objective and constraints as linear in $Y$, then there is a way to express the optimization as a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP). Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

For this reason we don’t report uncertainty measures or statistical significance in the results of the simulation. From a Bayesian perspective, one can combine joint posterior samples for $E[Y_i | T_i=t, E_i=j]$ and $P(E_i=j)$, which provides a measure of uncertainty around the estimate. 2] Scott, Steven L. 2015): 37-45. [3]