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Experiment design and modeling for long-term studies in ads

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by HENNING HOHNHOLD, DEIRDRE O'BRIEN, and DIANE TANG In this post we discuss the challenges in measuring and modeling the long-term effect of ads on user behavior. We describe experiment designs which have proven effective for us and discuss the subtleties of trying to generalize the results via modeling.

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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

In practice, one may want to use more complex models to make these estimates. For example, one may want to use a model that can pool the epoch estimates with each other via hierarchical modeling (a.k.a. These MAB algorithms are great at maximizing reward when the models are perfectly specified and probabilities are accurate.