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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

For this reason we don’t report uncertainty measures or statistical significance in the results of the simulation. Ramp-up solution: measure epoch and condition on its effect If one wants to do full traffic ramp-up and use data from all epochs, they must use an adjusted estimator to get an unbiased estimate of the average reward in each arm.

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Variance and significance in large-scale online services

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by AMIR NAJMI Running live experiments on large-scale online services (LSOS) is an important aspect of data science. But the fact that a service could have millions of users and billions of interactions gives rise to both big data and methods which are effective with big data. And an LSOS is awash in data, right?

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LSOS experiments: how I learned to stop worrying and love the variability

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

And since the metric average is different in each hour of day, this is a source of variation in measuring the experimental effect. Rare binary event example In the previous post , we discussed how rare binary events can be fundamental to the LSOS business model. Let $Y_i$ be the response measured on the $i$th user session.