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Experiment design and modeling for long-term studies in ads

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by HENNING HOHNHOLD, DEIRDRE O'BRIEN, and DIANE TANG In this post we discuss the challenges in measuring and modeling the long-term effect of ads on user behavior. Nevertheless, A/B testing has challenges and blind spots, such as: the difficulty of identifying suitable metrics that give "works well" a measurable meaning.

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Variance and significance in large-scale online services

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

The LSOS may do this by exposing a random group of users to the new design and compare them to a control group, and then analyze the effect on important user engagement metrics, such as bounce rate, time to first action, or number of experiences deemed positive. And an LSOS is awash in data, right?

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ML internals: Synthetic Minority Oversampling (SMOTE) Technique

Domino Data Lab

Working with highly imbalanced data can be problematic in several aspects: Distorted performance metrics — In a highly imbalanced dataset, say a binary dataset with a class ratio of 98:2, an algorithm that always predicts the majority class and completely ignores the minority class will still be 98% correct. return synthetic.

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LSOS experiments: how I learned to stop worrying and love the variability

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Variance reduction through conditioning Suppose, as an LSOS experimenter, you find that your key metric varies a lot by country and time of day. And since the metric average is different in each hour of day, this is a source of variation in measuring the experimental effect. Obviously, this doesn’t have to be true.

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Explaining black-box models using attribute importance, PDPs, and LIME

Domino Data Lab

Because of its architecture, intrinsically explainable ANNs can be optimised not just on its prediction performance, but also on its explainability metric. but it generally relies on measuring the entropy in the change of predictions given a perturbation of a feature. Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp.

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