The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. In the first plot, the raw weekly actuals (in red) are adjusted for a level change in September 2011 and an anomalous spike near October 2012. Such a model risks conflating important aspects, notably the growth trend, with other less critical aspects.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If $Y$ at that point is (statistically and practically) significantly better than our current operating point, and that point is deemed acceptable, we update the system parameters to this better value. Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

Domino Data Lab

JULY 22, 2019

He was saying this doesn’t belong just in statistics. It involved a lot of work with applied math, some depth in statistics and visualization, and also a lot of communication skills. I went to a meeting at Starbucks with the founder of Alation right before they launched in 2012, drawing on the proverbial back-of-the-napkin.

Data Science 109

Data Science Machine Learning Data Governance Modeling 109

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

AUGUST 27, 2019

But importance sampling in statistics is a variance reduction technique to improve the inference of the rate of rare events, and it seems natural to apply it to our prevalence estimation problem. High Risk 10% 5% 33.3% Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] How Many Strata?

Metrics 98

Metrics Statistics Uncertainty Optimization 98

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

Statistical power is traditionally given in terms of a probability function, but often a more intuitive way of describing power is by stating the expected precision of our estimates. This is a quantity that is easily interpretable and summarizes nicely the statistical power of the experiment. In the U.S.,

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42

datapine

DECEMBER 28, 2021

1) What Is A Misleading Statistic? 2) Are Statistics Reliable? 3) Misleading Statistics Examples In Real Life. 4) How Can Statistics Be Misleading. 5) How To Avoid & Identify The Misuse Of Statistics? If all this is true, what is the problem with statistics? What Is A Misleading Statistic?

Statistics 363

Statistics Advertising Visualization Data mining 363