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Simulation for better decision making

Cloudera

Derman (2016), Cesa (2017) & Bouchard (2018)). ABMs consist of an environment that is composed of (software) agents who interact with and influence one another, learn from their experiences and adapt their behaviours so that they are better suited to their environment. Blog Post, Nov-2016. Jean-Phillipe Bouchard, J.

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Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. However, if we experiment with both parameters at the same time we will learn something about interactions between these system parameters. It is a big picture approach, worthy of your consideration.

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Global Banking & Finance Review: What Story Does the Office of the CFO Need to Tell Now?

Jet Global

In the last few months, this level of thinking has been tested more than ever before. And that’s the last thing you want during in periods of uncertainty where things are changing on a daily basis. Furthermore, a 20 18 McKinsey survey said that the number of functions reporting to CFOs has risen from four to six since 2016.

Finance 64
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Using random effects models in prediction problems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

In the context of prediction problems, another benefit is that the models produce an estimate of the uncertainty in their predictions: the predictive posterior distribution. Column "a" is an advertiser id, "b" is a web site, and "c" is the 'interaction' of columns "a" and "b". $y$ y$ feature (a) feature (b) feature (c) $sigma^2$ 1.2

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Decision-Making in a Time of Crisis

O'Reilly on Data

But when making a decision under uncertainty about the future, two things dictate the outcome: (1) the quality of the decision and (2) chance. This essay is about how to take a more principled approach to making decisions under uncertainty and aims to provide certain conceptual and cognitive tools for how to do so, not what decisions to make.