Remove 2017 Remove Experimentation Remove Testing Remove Uncertainty
article thumbnail

Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. To find optimal values of two parameters experimentally, the obvious strategy would be to experiment with and update them in separate, sequential stages. In this section we’ll discuss how we approach these two kinds of uncertainty with QCQP.

article thumbnail

Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Another reason to use ramp-up is to test if a website's infrastructure can handle deploying a new arm to all of its users. The website wants to make sure they have the infrastructure to handle the feature while testing if engagement increases enough to justify the infrastructure. We offer two examples where this may be the case.

article thumbnail

The trinity of errors in applying confidence intervals: An exploration using Statsmodels

O'Reilly on Data

Because of this trifecta of errors, we need dynamic models that quantify the uncertainty inherent in our financial estimates and predictions. Practitioners in all social sciences, especially financial economics, use confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty in their estimates and predictions.