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Experiment design and modeling for long-term studies in ads

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by HENNING HOHNHOLD, DEIRDRE O'BRIEN, and DIANE TANG In this post we discuss the challenges in measuring and modeling the long-term effect of ads on user behavior. Nevertheless, A/B testing has challenges and blind spots, such as: the difficulty of identifying suitable metrics that give "works well" a measurable meaning.

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Variance and significance in large-scale online services

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by AMIR NAJMI Running live experiments on large-scale online services (LSOS) is an important aspect of data science. We must therefore maintain statistical rigor in quantifying experimental uncertainty. In this post we explore how and why we can be “ data-rich but information-poor ”. And an LSOS is awash in data, right?

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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Instead, we focus on the case where an experimenter has decided to run a full traffic ramp-up experiment and wants to use the data from all of the epochs in the analysis. When there are changing assignment weights and time-based confounders, this complication must be considered either in the analysis or the experimental design.

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LSOS experiments: how I learned to stop worrying and love the variability

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Despite a very large number of experimental units, the experiments conducted by LSOS cannot presume statistical significance of all effects they deem practically significant. The result is that experimenters can’t afford to be sloppy about quantifying uncertainty. In statistics, such segments are often called “blocks” or “strata”.