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Our quest for robust time series forecasting at scale

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. Prediction Intervals A statistical forecasting system should not lack uncertainty quantification. Below are daily and weekly totals of electricity demand (in MV) in Turkey from the start of 2000 through the end of 2008. to 1.5%.

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New Thinking, Old Thinking and a Fairytale

Peter James Thomas

Of course it can be argued that you can use statistics (and Google Trends in particular) to prove anything [1] , but I found the above figures striking. King was a wise King, but now he was gripped with uncertainty. Source: Google Trends. And reduced costs aren’t guaranteed […].

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Data Science, Past & Future

Domino Data Lab

He was saying this doesn’t belong just in statistics. It involved a lot of work with applied math, some depth in statistics and visualization, and also a lot of communication skills. They learned about a lot of process that requires that you get rid of uncertainty. They’re being told they have to embrace uncertainty.

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Fitting Bayesian structural time series with the bsts R package

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

SCOTT Time series data are everywhere, but time series modeling is a fairly specialized area within statistics and data science. They may contain parameters in the statistical sense, but often they simply contain strategically placed 0's and 1's indicating which bits of $alpha_t$ are relevant for a particular computation. by STEVEN L.