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Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

the weight given to Likes in our video recommendation algorithm) while $Y$ is a vector of outcome measures such as different metrics of user experience (e.g., Experiments, Parameters and Models At Youtube, the relationships between system parameters and metrics often seem simple — straight-line models sometimes fit our data well.

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To Balance or Not to Balance?

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

In an ideal world, experimentation through randomization of the treatment assignment allows the identification and consistent estimation of causal effects. A naïve way to solve this problem would be to compare the proportion of buyers between the exposed and unexposed groups, using a simple test for equality of means.

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Estimating causal effects using geo experiments

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Similarly, we could test the effectiveness of a search ad compared to showing only organic search results. A geo experiment is an experiment where the experimental units are defined by geographic regions. In other words, iROAS is the slope of a curve of the response metric plotted against the underlying advertising spend.

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Unintentional data

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

With more features come more potential post hoc hypotheses about what is driving metrics of interest, and more opportunity for exploratory analysis. Yet when we use these tools to explore data and look for anomalies or interesting features, we are implicitly formulating and testing hypotheses after we have observed the outcomes.