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Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

the weight given to Likes in our video recommendation algorithm) while $Y$ is a vector of outcome measures such as different metrics of user experience (e.g., Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. Figure 2: Spreading measurements out makes estimates of model (slope of line) more accurate.

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Our quest for robust time series forecasting at scale

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. First, the system may not be understood, and even if it was understood it may be extremely difficult to measure the relationships that are assumed to govern its behavior. Crucially, our approach does not rely on model performance on holdout samples.

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Estimating the prevalence of rare events — theory and practice

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

But importance sampling in statistics is a variance reduction technique to improve the inference of the rate of rare events, and it seems natural to apply it to our prevalence estimation problem. Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] 5] Ray Chambers, Robert Clark (2012). How Many Strata?

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Estimating causal effects using geo experiments

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

It is important that we can measure the effect of these offline conversions as well. Panel studies make it possible to measure user behavior along with the exposure to ads and other online elements. Let's take a look at larger groups of individuals whose aggregate behavior we can measure. days or weeks).

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Misleading Statistics Examples – Discover The Potential For Misuse of Statistics & Data In The Digital Age

datapine

1) What Is A Misleading Statistic? 2) Are Statistics Reliable? 3) Misleading Statistics Examples In Real Life. 4) How Can Statistics Be Misleading. 5) How To Avoid & Identify The Misuse Of Statistics? If all this is true, what is the problem with statistics? What Is A Misleading Statistic?