The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If $Y$ at that point is (statistically and practically) significantly better than our current operating point, and that point is deemed acceptable, we update the system parameters to this better value. Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. And sometimes even if it is not[1].)

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Selection and aggregation of forecasts from an ensemble of models to produce a final forecast. Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. Calendaring was therefore an explicit feature of models within our framework, and we made considerable investment in maintaining detailed regional calendars.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

Domino Data Lab

JULY 22, 2019

how “the business executives who are seeing the value of data science and being model-informed, they are the ones who are doubling down on their bets now, and they’re investing a lot more money.” He was saying this doesn’t belong just in statistics. Key highlights from the session include. Transcript. Tukey did this paper.

Data Science 109

Data Science Machine Learning Data Governance Modeling 109

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 11, 2017

SCOTT Time series data are everywhere, but time series modeling is a fairly specialized area within statistics and data science. This post describes the bsts software package, which makes it easy to fit some fairly sophisticated time series models with just a few lines of R code. by STEVEN L. Forecasting (e.g.

Forecasting 64

Forecasting Statistics Modeling Software 64

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MARCH 31, 2016

KUEHNEL, and ALI NASIRI AMINI In this post, we give a brief introduction to random effects models, and discuss some of their uses. Through simulation we illustrate issues with model fitting techniques that depend on matrix factorization. Random effects models are a useful tool for both exploratory analyses and prediction problems.

Modeling 40

Modeling Statistics Advertising Testing 40

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

AUGUST 27, 2019

But importance sampling in statistics is a variance reduction technique to improve the inference of the rate of rare events, and it seems natural to apply it to our prevalence estimation problem. Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] 5] Ray Chambers, Robert Clark (2012). How Many Strata?

Metrics 98

Metrics Statistics Uncertainty Optimization 98

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

Statistical power is traditionally given in terms of a probability function, but often a more intuitive way of describing power is by stating the expected precision of our estimates. This is a quantity that is easily interpretable and summarizes nicely the statistical power of the experiment.

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42