The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If the relationship of $X$ to $Y$ can be approximated as quadratic (or any polynomial), the objective and constraints as linear in $Y$, then there is a way to express the optimization as a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP). Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

For us, demand for forecasts emerged from a determination to better understand business growth and health, more efficiently conduct day-to-day operations, and optimize longer-term resource planning and allocation decisions. Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MARCH 31, 2016

In the context of prediction problems, another benefit is that the models produce an estimate of the uncertainty in their predictions: the predictive posterior distribution. Cambridge University Press, (2006). [2] These predictive posterior distributions have many uses such as in multi-armed bandit problems. bandit problems).

Modeling 40

Modeling Statistics Advertising Testing 40

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 11, 2017

If both variances are positive then the optimal estimator of $y_{t+1}$ winds up being "exponential smoothing," where past data are forgotten at an exponential rate determined by the ratio of the two variances. Also notice that while the state in this model is Markov (i.e. Chapman & Hall, 3rd edn. Gramacy, R. and Polson, N. Holmes, C.

Forecasting 64

Forecasting Statistics Modeling Software 64

Domino Data Lab

JULY 22, 2019

The problems down in the mature bucket, those are optimizations, they aren’t showstoppers. They learned about a lot of process that requires that you get rid of uncertainty. They’re being told they have to embrace uncertainty. Then in 2006, they told me to go look at a website and sign up for a thing.

Data Science 109

Data Science Machine Learning Data Governance Modeling 109