Remove 2007 Remove Experimentation Remove Modeling Remove Uncertainty
article thumbnail

Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. Experiments, Parameters and Models At Youtube, the relationships between system parameters and metrics often seem simple — straight-line models sometimes fit our data well. It is a big picture approach, worthy of your consideration.

article thumbnail

The Lean Analytics Cycle: Metrics > Hypothesis > Experiment > Act

Occam's Razor

Let's listen in as Alistair discusses the lean analytics model… The Lean Analytics Cycle is a simple, four-step process that shows you how to improve a part of your business. Another way to find the metric you want to change is to look at your business model. The business model also tells you what the metric should be.

Metrics 156
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

Instead, we focus on the case where an experimenter has decided to run a full traffic ramp-up experiment and wants to use the data from all of the epochs in the analysis. When there are changing assignment weights and time-based confounders, this complication must be considered either in the analysis or the experimental design.

article thumbnail

Estimating causal effects using geo experiments

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

A geo experiment is an experiment where the experimental units are defined by geographic regions. The expected precision of our inferences can be computed by simulating possible experimental outcomes. The model regresses the outcomes $y_{1,i}$ on the incremental change in ad spend $delta_i$.

article thumbnail

The trinity of errors in applying confidence intervals: An exploration using Statsmodels

O'Reilly on Data

Recall from my previous blog post that all financial models are at the mercy of the Trinity of Errors , namely: errors in model specifications, errors in model parameter estimates, and errors resulting from the failure of a model to adapt to structural changes in its environment.