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New Thinking, Old Thinking and a Fairytale

Peter James Thomas

The above chart compares monthly searches for Business Process Reengineering (including its arguable rebranding as Business Transformation ) and monthly searches for Data Science between 2004 and 2019. Here we come back to the upward trend in searches for Data Science. – CIO.com 2010. “61%

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Fitting Bayesian structural time series with the bsts R package

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

SCOTT Time series data are everywhere, but time series modeling is a fairly specialized area within statistics and data science. Introduction Time series data appear in a surprising number of applications, ranging from business, to the physical and social sciences, to health, medicine, and engineering.

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Estimating the prevalence of rare events — theory and practice

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

The bucketing method also changes the importance sampling to a stratified sampling setting, and allows us to use binomial confidence intervals to estimate the uncertainty of our estimate (more on that later). Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] High Risk 10% 5% 33.3% How Many Strata?

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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

For this reason we don’t report uncertainty measures or statistical significance in the results of the simulation. From a Bayesian perspective, one can combine joint posterior samples for $E[Y_i | T_i=t, E_i=j]$ and $P(E_i=j)$, which provides a measure of uncertainty around the estimate. ACM, 2017. [4] 5] Imbens, Guido W.,

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Using random effects models in prediction problems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

In the context of prediction problems, another benefit is that the models produce an estimate of the uncertainty in their predictions: the predictive posterior distribution. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 26 (2010): 639-658. [10] bandit problems). 2005): 301-320. [9] 9] Steven L. 10] Steven L.