The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. In the first plot, the raw weekly actuals (in red) are adjusted for a level change in September 2011 and an anomalous spike near October 2012. Prediction Intervals A statistical forecasting system should not lack uncertainty quantification.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

Occam's Razor

APRIL 8, 2013

Remember that the raw number is not the only important part, we would also measure statistical significance. By 2011, the company had 20 full-time photographers on staff. They might deal with uncertainty, but they're not random. The properties with professional photography had 2-3 times the number of bookings!

Metrics 156

Metrics KPI Analytics Key Performance Indicator 156

Peter James Thomas

AUGUST 12, 2018

Integrity of statistical estimates based on Data. Having spent 18 years working in various parts of the Insurance industry, statistical estimates being part of the standard set of metrics is pretty familiar to me [7]. The thing with statistical estimates is that they are never a single figure but a range. million ± £0.5

Metrics 49

Metrics Statistics Data Quality Measurement 49

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 18, 2023

Editor's note : The relationship between reliability and validity are somewhat analogous to that between the notions of statistical uncertainty and representational uncertainty introduced in an earlier post. But for more complicated metrics like xRR, our preference is to bootstrap when measuring uncertainty.

Measurement 52

Measurement Metrics Uncertainty Slice and Dice 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 11, 2017

SCOTT Time series data are everywhere, but time series modeling is a fairly specialized area within statistics and data science. They may contain parameters in the statistical sense, but often they simply contain strategically placed 0's and 1's indicating which bits of $alpha_t$ are relevant for a particular computation. by STEVEN L.

Forecasting 64

Forecasting Statistics Modeling Software 64

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

Statistical power is traditionally given in terms of a probability function, but often a more intuitive way of describing power is by stating the expected precision of our estimates. This is a quantity that is easily interpretable and summarizes nicely the statistical power of the experiment. In the U.S.,

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42