Remove 2007 Remove Measurement Remove Modeling Remove Uncertainty
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Measuring Validity and Reliability of Human Ratings

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

E ven after we account for disagreement, human ratings may not measure exactly what we want to measure. Researchers and practitioners have been using human-labeled data for many years, trying to understand all sorts of abstract concepts that we could not measure otherwise. That’s the focus of this blog post.

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The Lean Analytics Cycle: Metrics > Hypothesis > Experiment > Act

Occam's Razor

Let's listen in as Alistair discusses the lean analytics model… The Lean Analytics Cycle is a simple, four-step process that shows you how to improve a part of your business. Another way to find the metric you want to change is to look at your business model. The business model also tells you what the metric should be.

Metrics 156
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Towards optimal experimentation in online systems

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

the weight given to Likes in our video recommendation algorithm) while $Y$ is a vector of outcome measures such as different metrics of user experience (e.g., Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. Figure 2: Spreading measurements out makes estimates of model (slope of line) more accurate.

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Why model calibration matters and how to achieve it

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

by LEE RICHARDSON & TAYLOR POSPISIL Calibrated models make probabilistic predictions that match real world probabilities. While calibration seems like a straightforward and perhaps trivial property, miscalibrated models are actually quite common. Why calibration matters What are the consequences of miscalibrated models?

Modeling 122
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Changing assignment weights with time-based confounders

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

For this reason we don’t report uncertainty measures or statistical significance in the results of the simulation. In practice, one may want to use more complex models to make these estimates. For example, one may want to use a model that can pool the epoch estimates with each other via hierarchical modeling (a.k.a.

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Estimating causal effects using geo experiments

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

It is important that we can measure the effect of these offline conversions as well. Panel studies make it possible to measure user behavior along with the exposure to ads and other online elements. Let's take a look at larger groups of individuals whose aggregate behavior we can measure. days or weeks).

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The trinity of errors in applying confidence intervals: An exploration using Statsmodels

O'Reilly on Data

Recall from my previous blog post that all financial models are at the mercy of the Trinity of Errors , namely: errors in model specifications, errors in model parameter estimates, and errors resulting from the failure of a model to adapt to structural changes in its environment.