The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If $Y$ at that point is (statistically and practically) significantly better than our current operating point, and that point is deemed acceptable, we update the system parameters to this better value. Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 22, 2020

One reason to do ramp-up is to mitigate the risk of never before seen arms. For example, imagine a fantasy football site is considering displaying advanced player statistics. A ramp-up strategy may mitigate the risk of upsetting the site’s loyal users who perhaps have strong preferences for the current statistics that are shown.

Experimentation 95

Experimentation Statistics Testing Strategy 95

Peter James Thomas

JUNE 20, 2019

Of course it can be argued that you can use statistics (and Google Trends in particular) to prove anything [1] , but I found the above figures striking. © Scott Adams (2017) – dilbert.com. In 2017, a survey estimated that 68 percent of American offices had low or no separation between workers. Source: Google Trends.

Cost-Benefit 55

Cost-Benefit Data Warehouse Consulting Data Science 55

Peter James Thomas

AUGUST 12, 2018

Integrity of statistical estimates based on Data. Having spent 18 years working in various parts of the Insurance industry, statistical estimates being part of the standard set of metrics is pretty familiar to me [7]. The thing with statistical estimates is that they are never a single figure but a range. million ± £0.5

Metrics 49

Metrics Statistics Data Quality Measurement 49

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. Such a model risks conflating important aspects, notably the growth trend, with other less critical aspects. In other words, there is an asymmetry of risk-reward when there exists the possibility of misspecifying the weights in $X_C$.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

O'Reilly on Data

DECEMBER 9, 2019

Because of this trifecta of errors, we need dynamic models that quantify the uncertainty inherent in our financial estimates and predictions. Practitioners in all social sciences, especially financial economics, use confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty in their estimates and predictions.

Statistics 27

Statistics Uncertainty Risk Marketing 27