The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If $Y$ at that point is (statistically and practically) significantly better than our current operating point, and that point is deemed acceptable, we update the system parameters to this better value. Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. We conclude with an example of our forecasting routine applied to publicly available Turkish Electricity data. Such a model risks conflating important aspects, notably the growth trend, with other less critical aspects.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

DECEMBER 4, 2019

by THOMAS OLAVSON Thomas leads a team at Google called "Operations Data Science" that helps Google scale its infrastructure capacity optimally. This classification is based on the purpose, horizon, update frequency and uncertainty of the forecast. Our team does a lot of forecasting.

Forecasting 113

Forecasting Data Science Statistics Uncertainty 113

Insight

FEBRUARY 19, 2020

Using variability in machine learning predictions as a proxy for risk can help studio executives and producers decide whether or not to green light a film project Photo by Kyle Smith on Unsplash Originally posted on Toward Data Science. and even set their risk tolerance. and even set their risk tolerance.

Risk 67

Risk ROI Modeling Metrics 67

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 22, 2020

One reason to do ramp-up is to mitigate the risk of never before seen arms. For example, imagine a fantasy football site is considering displaying advanced player statistics. A ramp-up strategy may mitigate the risk of upsetting the site’s loyal users who perhaps have strong preferences for the current statistics that are shown.

Experimentation 95

Experimentation Statistics Testing Strategy 95

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

AUGUST 27, 2019

But importance sampling in statistics is a variance reduction technique to improve the inference of the rate of rare events, and it seems natural to apply it to our prevalence estimation problem. High Risk 10% 5% 33.3% Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] How Many Strata?

Metrics 98

Metrics Statistics Uncertainty Optimization 98

Peter James Thomas

AUGUST 12, 2018

Integrity of statistical estimates based on Data. Having spent 18 years working in various parts of the Insurance industry, statistical estimates being part of the standard set of metrics is pretty familiar to me [7]. The thing with statistical estimates is that they are never a single figure but a range.

Metrics 49

Metrics Statistics Data Quality Measurement 49

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

Statistical power is traditionally given in terms of a probability function, but often a more intuitive way of describing power is by stating the expected precision of our estimates. This is a quantity that is easily interpretable and summarizes nicely the statistical power of the experiment. In the U.S.,

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42

Domino Data Lab

JUNE 23, 2019

All you need to know, for now, is that machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence that uses statistical techniques to give computer systems the ability to learn based on data by being trained on past examples. They have the foundations of data infrastructure.

Management 110

Management Machine Learning Experimentation Metrics 110