The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JANUARY 14, 2016

Unlike experimentation in some other areas, LSOS experiments present a surprising challenge to statisticians — even though we operate in the realm of “big data”, the statistical uncertainty in our experiments can be substantial. We must therefore maintain statistical rigor in quantifying experimental uncertainty.

Experimentation 41

Experimentation Statistics Metrics Measurement 41

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

If $Y$ at that point is (statistically and practically) significantly better than our current operating point, and that point is deemed acceptable, we update the system parameters to this better value. Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 22, 2020

One reason to do ramp-up is to mitigate the risk of never before seen arms. For example, imagine a fantasy football site is considering displaying advanced player statistics. A ramp-up strategy may mitigate the risk of upsetting the site’s loyal users who perhaps have strong preferences for the current statistics that are shown.

Experimentation 95

Experimentation Statistics Testing Strategy 95

Insight

FEBRUARY 19, 2020

Using variability in machine learning predictions as a proxy for risk can help studio executives and producers decide whether or not to green light a film project Photo by Kyle Smith on Unsplash Originally posted on Toward Data Science. I held out 20% of this as a test set and used the remainder for training and validation.

Risk 67

Risk ROI Modeling Metrics 67

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

DECEMBER 4, 2019

This classification is based on the purpose, horizon, update frequency and uncertainty of the forecast. With those stakes and the long forecast horizon, we do not rely on a single statistical model based on historical trends. A single model may also not shed light on the uncertainty range we actually face.

Forecasting 113

Forecasting Data Science Statistics Uncertainty 113

O'Reilly on Data

DECEMBER 9, 2019

Because of this trifecta of errors, we need dynamic models that quantify the uncertainty inherent in our financial estimates and predictions. Practitioners in all social sciences, especially financial economics, use confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty in their estimates and predictions.

Statistics 27

Statistics Uncertainty Risk Marketing 27

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

Similarly, we could test the effectiveness of a search ad compared to showing only organic search results. Structure of a geo experiment A typical geo experiment consists of two distinct time periods: pretest and test. After the test period finishes, the campaigns in the treatment group are reset to their original configurations.

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42

Domino Data Lab

JUNE 23, 2019

As a result, Skomoroch advocates getting “designers and data scientists, machine learning folks together and using real data and prototyping and testing” as quickly as possible. As quickly as possible, you want to get designers and data scientists, machine learning folks together and using real data and prototyping and testing.

Management 110

Management Machine Learning Experimentation Metrics 110

datapine

DECEMBER 28, 2021

1) What Is A Misleading Statistic? 2) Are Statistics Reliable? 3) Misleading Statistics Examples In Real Life. 4) How Can Statistics Be Misleading. 5) How To Avoid & Identify The Misuse Of Statistics? If all this is true, what is the problem with statistics? What Is A Misleading Statistic?

Statistics 363

Statistics Advertising Visualization Data mining 363

CIO Business Intelligence

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

As genAI caught fire in 2023, many organizations rushed to test and learn from the technology and harness it to grow productivity and improve processes. 4 Additionally, while 63% have guardrails in place to use AI safely, these organizations worry about its role in misinformation, ethical bias and job loss among other risks, Wavestone found.

IT 115

IT Consulting Cost-Benefit Uncertainty 115

O'Reilly on Data

JUNE 16, 2020

We know, statistically, that doubling down on an 11 is a good (and common) strategy in blackjack. But when making a decision under uncertainty about the future, two things dictate the outcome: (1) the quality of the decision and (2) chance. Consider risk not only in terms of likelihood but also in terms of the impact of your decisions.

Uncertainty 275

Uncertainty Testing Risk Reporting 275