IBM Big Data Hub

APRIL 18, 2024

While these large language model (LLM) technologies might seem like it sometimes, it’s important to understand that they are not the thinking machines promised by science fiction. LLMs like ChatGPT are trained on massive amounts of text data, allowing them to recognize patterns and statistical relationships within language.

Cost-Benefit 95

Cost-Benefit Modeling Manufacturing Interactive 95

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JANUARY 14, 2016

Unlike experimentation in some other areas, LSOS experiments present a surprising challenge to statisticians — even though we operate in the realm of “big data”, the statistical uncertainty in our experiments can be substantial. We must therefore maintain statistical rigor in quantifying experimental uncertainty.

Experimentation 41

Experimentation Statistics Metrics Measurement 41

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 23, 2024

the weight given to Likes in our video recommendation algorithm) while $Y$ is a vector of outcome measures such as different metrics of user experience (e.g., Crucially, it takes into account the uncertainty inherent in our experiments. Figure 2: Spreading measurements out makes estimates of model (slope of line) more accurate.

Experimentation 52

Experimentation Optimization Uncertainty Metrics 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 18, 2023

E ven after we account for disagreement, human ratings may not measure exactly what we want to measure. Researchers and practitioners have been using human-labeled data for many years, trying to understand all sorts of abstract concepts that we could not measure otherwise. That’s the focus of this blog post.

Measurement 52

Measurement Metrics Uncertainty Slice and Dice 52

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 17, 2017

Selection and aggregation of forecasts from an ensemble of models to produce a final forecast. Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. Calendaring was therefore an explicit feature of models within our framework, and we made considerable investment in maintaining detailed regional calendars.

Forecasting 83

Forecasting Modeling Statistics Uncertainty 83

Occam's Razor

APRIL 8, 2013

Let's listen in as Alistair discusses the lean analytics model… The Lean Analytics Cycle is a simple, four-step process that shows you how to improve a part of your business. Another way to find the metric you want to change is to look at your business model. The business model also tells you what the metric should be.

Metrics 156

Metrics KPI Analytics Key Performance Indicator 156

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

JULY 22, 2020

For example, imagine a fantasy football site is considering displaying advanced player statistics. A ramp-up strategy may mitigate the risk of upsetting the site’s loyal users who perhaps have strong preferences for the current statistics that are shown. One reason to do ramp-up is to mitigate the risk of never before seen arms.

Experimentation 95

Experimentation Statistics Testing Strategy 95

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

DECEMBER 4, 2019

Others argue that there will still be a unique role for the data scientist to deal with ambiguous objectives, messy data, and knowing the limits of any given model. This classification is based on the purpose, horizon, update frequency and uncertainty of the forecast.

Forecasting 113

Forecasting Data Science Statistics Uncertainty 113

Peter James Thomas

AUGUST 12, 2018

This piece was prompted by both Olaf’s question and a recent article by my friend Neil Raden on his Silicon Angle blog, Performance management: Can you really manage what you measure? It is hard to account for such tweaking in measurement systems. Some relate to inherent issues with what is being measured.

Metrics 49

Metrics Statistics Data Quality Measurement 49

Data Science and Beyond

JANUARY 7, 2019

Bootstrap sampling techniques are very appealing, as they don’t require knowing much about statistics and opaque formulas. Instead, all one needs to do is resample the given data many times, and calculate the desired statistics. Don’t compare confidence intervals visually. Pitfall #1: Inaccurate confidence intervals.

Statistics 77

Statistics Uncertainty Testing Modeling 77

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

AUGUST 27, 2019

But importance sampling in statistics is a variance reduction technique to improve the inference of the rate of rare events, and it seems natural to apply it to our prevalence estimation problem. Statistical Science. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 2010. [4] High Risk 10% 5% 33.3% How Many Strata? 16 (2): 101–133. [3]

Metrics 98

Metrics Statistics Uncertainty Optimization 98

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MAY 31, 2016

It is important that we can measure the effect of these offline conversions as well. Panel studies make it possible to measure user behavior along with the exposure to ads and other online elements. Let's take a look at larger groups of individuals whose aggregate behavior we can measure. days or weeks).

Advertising 42

Advertising Testing Sales Statistics 42

O'Reilly on Data

DECEMBER 9, 2019

Recall from my previous blog post that all financial models are at the mercy of the Trinity of Errors , namely: errors in model specifications, errors in model parameter estimates, and errors resulting from the failure of a model to adapt to structural changes in its environment.

Statistics 27

Statistics Uncertainty Risk Marketing 27

BI-Survey

FEBRUARY 14, 2022

Overnight, the impact of uncertainty, dynamics and complexity on markets could no longer be ignored. Local events in an increasingly interconnected economy and uncertainties such as the climate crisis will continue to create high volatility and even chaos. The COVID-19 pandemic caught most companies unprepared. BARC Recommendations.

Forecasting 52

Forecasting Uncertainty Measurement Software 52

Domino Data Lab

JUNE 23, 2019

All you need to know, for now, is that machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence that uses statistical techniques to give computer systems the ability to learn based on data by being trained on past examples. These measurement-obsessed companies have an advantage when it comes to AI. You really have to just go through it.

Management 110

Management Machine Learning Experimentation Metrics 110

Insight

FEBRUARY 19, 2020

My goal here is not to improve upon the current prediction algorithms but rather to describe a model I devised, called ReelRisk , that uses random resampling to generate a range of predictions which can then be used as a risk assessment tool to determine early on whether to fund a movie.

Risk 67

Risk ROI Modeling Metrics 67

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

FEBRUARY 29, 2016

In this post we explore why some standard statistical techniques to reduce variance are often ineffective in this “data-rich, information-poor” realm. Despite a very large number of experimental units, the experiments conducted by LSOS cannot presume statistical significance of all effects they deem practically significant.

Experimentation 40

Experimentation Metrics Statistics Measurement 40

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

MARCH 13, 2017

Typically, causal inference in data science is framed in probabilistic terms, where there is statistical uncertainty in the outcomes as well as model uncertainty about the true causal mechanism connecting inputs and outputs. We are all familiar with linear and logistic regression models.

IT 68

IT Visualization Modeling Uncertainty 68

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

APRIL 16, 2019

Modern products often don't start with set-in-stone business models because starting and scaling costs are low. On the other hand, fledgling products often have neither the statistical power to identify the effects of small incremental changes, nor the luxury to contemplate small improvements. Wonders of the internet (and VC funding)!

Experimentation 68

Experimentation Sales Metrics Measurement 68

datapine

DECEMBER 28, 2021

1) What Is A Misleading Statistic? 2) Are Statistics Reliable? 3) Misleading Statistics Examples In Real Life. 4) How Can Statistics Be Misleading. 5) How To Avoid & Identify The Misuse Of Statistics? If all this is true, what is the problem with statistics? What Is A Misleading Statistic?

Statistics 363

Statistics Advertising Visualization Data mining 363

The Unofficial Google Data Science Blog

OCTOBER 21, 2015

It is important to make clear distinctions among each of these, and to advance the state of knowledge through concerted observation, modeling and experimentation. Note also that this account does not involve ambiguity due to statistical uncertainty. This is very much the work of a scientist.

Slice and Dice 45

Slice and Dice Experimentation Data-driven Data Science 45

Jen Stirrup

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

The foundation should be well structured and have essential data quality measures, monitoring and good data engineering practices. Of course, the findings need to add value, but how do we measure this success? Measures can be financial, tying in with the business strategy. After all, it can sound a bit woolly!

Data Science 145

Data Science Digital Transformation Data-driven Measurement 145